12/14

With all the computers and all the weather history contained, there has got to be a flip of a coin or a throw of a dart involved in picking the model that a weatherman chooses to run with. And as you might have noticed the closer a dreary gets to your area, the forecast most always changes and at times some of the changes are big time.

What would you suggest the chances of success of forecasting where a clump of several or maybe just one rain drop will hit the ground? Even with all the computers being fed things which I suppose would include wind velocity among many other things, to pinpoint the area of impact would be impossible. Might get within a mile or two if you revise the prediction just before they hit the ground. What a complicated job!

I've been thinking some this morning about the said possibility of measurable ice accumulation come Thursday. In my opinion it will probably not happen at all. First they are predicting from too far out in front of the possibility, tho I know it will be revised several times before the projected ice day.

Then too, if a weatherman forecasts a 50% chance of rain and is wrong 60% of the time what would be the real chances of rain? I believe that I've figured it out. You may say there is a 50% chance it won't rain just to scoot on by but you would be wrong according to my calculations.

If you say, that because the weather man is wrong 60% of the time, then it could be said that we have a 40% chance of him being right....Wrong again.

A 50% chance of rain made by a 60% of the time wrong person you would need to reduce the 50% chance of rain by 60% leaving only a 20% chance. After that one would need to subtract that from the 40% chance he might be correct, leaving you the real chance of the forecasted happening at only a 10%.

You can see at 10% they can't help but get it correct some of the time but look at the other 90% of the time they won't. Anyway, I've tried to think about how errors can work on either end, like none of the forecasted accumulation to many many times more than what they say, but my meager brain just isn't up to it.
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If the facts don't fit the theory, either change the facts or use percentages to prove the theory.~unknown